🌊 Trend Following On
Buys uptrends, sells downtrends. Requires SMA20 vs SMA50 confluence and RSI between 30–70 to avoid extremes.
Edge Captures the meat of sustained moves. Win rate is moderate but winners are large.
Regime Trending markets — directional, low chop.
Risk Whipsaws in ranges; large drawdowns at trend reversals. Weight 3
🪃 Mean Reversion Off
Fades RSI > 70 (sell) and RSI < 30 (buy) when price is far from SMA20. Strong inside ranges; risky in trends.
Edge Sells fear / buys complacency. High win rate with small per-trade gains.
Regime Range-bound, low-volatility regimes; pairs trading.
Risk Catastrophic in trending breakouts (fading the move). 🚀 Breakout Off
Triggers when price breaks the recent 20-bar high (long) or low (short) with momentum confirmation.
Edge Front-runs new ranges. Low win rate but explosive winners.
Regime Volatility expansions, post-consolidation.
Risk Many false breaks; needs strict stop discipline. ✝️ Golden / Death Cross Off
Wall Street's most-watched long-term signal. SMA50 crossing above SMA200 = bull bias; below = bear bias. Slow but historically powerful.
Edge Most-watched long-term regime filter on Wall Street. Slow but extremely robust signals.
Regime Multi-month / multi-year trends — daily or weekly bars.
Risk Lags reversals by weeks; useless on intraday timeframes. 📐 MACD Crossover Off
Buys when MACD (12,26) crosses above its 9-EMA signal; sells on the inverse. Histogram momentum filter avoids weak crosses.
Edge Combines momentum and trend in one of the most cited indicators in trading.
Regime Trending or transitioning markets with clear momentum shifts.
Risk Frequent false crosses in flat / choppy regimes. 🪤 Bollinger Squeeze Off
Detects volatility contraction (BB width below recent average) then trades the first close outside the bands — explosive breakout setup.
Edge Trades volatility expansion — historically explosive on first close outside the bands.
Regime Post-consolidation, low-volatility coiling phases.
Risk Squeeze can persist; false breaks reverse fast. 🐢 Donchian Breakout (Turtle) Off
The original Turtle-trader rule: long on a new 20-bar high, short on a new 20-bar low. Pure trend-capturing system that famously printed 80%+ CAGRs.
Edge The original Turtle-trader rule that famously printed 80%+ CAGRs in the 80s.
Regime Strong trends — commodities, crypto, momentum equities.
Risk Awful in chop; low win rate (~30–40%) by design. 🪝 EMA Pullback Off
In an EMA20 > EMA50 uptrend, buys pullbacks that touch EMA20 and rebound. Inverse for downtrends. Classic continuation entry.
Edge High-quality continuation entries with tight stops and great R/R.
Regime Established trends with healthy retracements.
Risk Pullback can morph into reversal — needs trend confirmation. 🏎️ Rate-of-Change Momentum Off
Long when 10-bar rate of change is strongly positive, short when strongly negative. Foundation of Jegadeesh/Titman momentum factor.
Edge The Jegadeesh/Titman cross-sectional momentum factor — academia's most-replicated edge.
Regime Trending equities, crypto, and commodities.
Risk Momentum crashes on regime flips (2009-style). 🎯 VWAP Reversion Off
Institutional benchmark fade: buys price stretched far below session VWAP, sells when stretched far above. Best on intraday timeframes.
Edge Fades extension from the institutional benchmark price — high win-rate intraday.
Regime Liquid intraday markets with clear session boundaries.
Risk Trending days punish faders; needs an intraday timeframe. 🛡️ Supertrend Off
Uses ATR-bands around HL2 to flip long/short. One of the most popular trend-following overlays on retail platforms; lags but resists chop.
Edge Smooth ATR-based trend overlay; one of the most popular retail trend systems.
Regime Sustained directional trends, esp. crypto and FX.
Risk Lags entries; whipsaws in ranges like all trailing stops. 📊 Volume Breakout Off
Combines a 20-bar range break with a 2× average-volume surge on the breakout bar. Filters out the low-conviction false breaks.
Edge Filters out low-conviction breakouts using a 2× volume confirmation rule.
Regime News-driven moves, earnings, catalyst trades.
Risk Only fires when volume data is reliable (excludes some FX feeds). ⚡ Dual Momentum Off
Long only when both 12-bar momentum and 26-bar momentum agree on direction. Antonacci's robust momentum filter — very few but high-quality entries.
Edge Antonacci's two-window filter delivers very few but extremely high-quality entries.
Regime Long-horizon equity / asset-class rotation.
Risk Few signals → long flat periods; tracking error vs benchmark. 